Overview
- The WMO projects a 60% chance of ENSO‑neutral conditions from March to May, with La Niña at 30% and El Niño at 10%, shifting to a 60% neutral and 40% El Niño split by May–July.
- NOAA estimates a roughly 50%–60% probability that El Niño will develop by late summer and persist beyond the July–September period.
- WMO says the current weak La Niña is fading, with a 70% likelihood of neutral conditions during April–June as the Pacific transitions.
- WMO notes the 2023–24 El Niño ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to 2023 being the second‑warmest year and 2024 the warmest.
- Scientists caution that early‑season skill is limited but warn a moderate El Niño could make 2027 the leading candidate for the warmest year, while WMO highlights these forecasts as vital tools for disaster risk management.