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Walmart’s $1 Trillion Run Sets Up Pivotal Feb. 19 Earnings Test

A lofty multiple leaves little room for error heading into guidance.

Overview

  • Walmart reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results on Feb. 19 after a roughly 20% year-to-date rally.
  • The company recently surpassed a $1 trillion market value, becoming the first retailer to reach that milestone.
  • Shares trade at roughly 45–46 times earnings, the highest since 2021, which heightens the risk of a pullback if the outlook disappoints.
  • Analyst sentiment is broadly positive with a Strong Buy consensus, yet price targets imply limited upside, including Bernstein at $129 and Citi up to $147.
  • Key watch items include tech-led growth after Q3 e-commerce rose 27% and advertising expanded 53%, supported by a larger marketplace and AI partnerships with ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini.