Overview
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz is “effectively closed,” with EU naval monitors and UKMTO citing radio warnings to ships, though the legal status is disputed and some transits continue.
- Major trading houses and some oil companies have paused crude and fuel flows through the strait, and maritime insurers have hiked war‑risk costs, adding friction to Gulf exports.
- Vessel‑tracking shows tankers building up at both ends of Hormuz and fewer transits, indicating a go‑slow approach as owners reassess risk.
- Analysts expect oil to jump when trading resumes, with forecasts of a $5–$10 per‑barrel rise initially and upside to triple digits if disruptions persist or spread.
- OPEC+ convenes Sunday with a modest 137,000 bpd increase under consideration, while Saudi and UAE pipelines provide limited bypass capacity that cannot substitute for Hormuz volumes.