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U.S. PCE Inflation Rises to 2.9% as Core Hits 3.0%, Clouding Near-Term Fed Cuts

Markets still expect modest 2026 easing despite a stronger core reading.

Overview

  • Annual PCE inflation reached 2.9% in December and core rose to 3.0%, topping forecasts and edging higher from November’s 2.8% readings.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 0.4% month-over-month gains for both headline and core measures.
  • Traders left rate expectations largely intact, still pricing about 58 basis points of cuts by year-end with the first reduction seen in June at the earliest.
  • Economists said the report underscores the challenge of returning to the Fed’s 2% goal, with Jason Furman calling the core outcome a strong finish in the wrong direction.
  • The release, delayed by a government shutdown, kept attention on Treasury yields, the dollar, and crypto markets, where positioning was defensive before the data.