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US Inflation Declines in June, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects

Consumer prices fell for the first time since 2020, with core inflation also easing, potentially paving the way for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

Overview

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in June, marking the first monthly decline since May 2020.
  • Annual inflation slowed to 3.0%, down from 3.3% in May, the slowest rise since early 2021.
  • Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year.
  • Falling gas prices and a slight moderation in rent costs contributed to the overall decline in inflation.
  • Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with an 87% probability now priced in.