Overview
- The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% on the month, bringing headline inflation to 2.4% year over year, while core CPI eased to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021.
- Energy and autos did the heavy lifting, with gasoline down 3.2% from December and 7.5% from a year earlier and used-car prices falling 1.8% on the month.
- Shelter costs increased 0.2% in January and 3.0% over the year, though economists warn recent readings may be depressed by October’s shutdown-related data imputation.
- Stocks advanced and Treasury yields fell as traders repriced the path of policy, increasing the probability of rate cuts later this year, with June increasingly seen as a plausible starting point.
- Economists highlight mixed undercurrents—airfares and some goods rose and a New York Fed study shows tariffs’ costs largely borne by firms and consumers—so most expect the Fed to wait for further evidence rather than cut in March.