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U.S. and Israel Strike Iran as Oil Risk Spikes and Tankers Halt Hormuz Transits

A new risk premium is building with Hormuz shipping pauses elevating supply uncertainty.

Overview

  • Iran launched missiles toward Israel after the joint strikes, escalating regional tensions and raising the threat to energy infrastructure, according to Reuters.
  • Some oil majors and trading houses suspended crude and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil flows.
  • Brent closed near $72.9 and WTI at about $67 on Friday, with analysts expecting heightened volatility when markets reopen next week.
  • OPEC+ convenes Sunday and may consider a larger output increase to steady prices, while Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been preparing extra shipments.
  • Analysts say a limited disruption could lift prices toward $80, with worst‑case scenarios involving Hormuz prompting a move toward $95–$110, and note the U.S. SPR cannot fully offset a prolonged chokepoint shock.