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Treasury Yields Hold Near 4.07% Ahead of PCE and GDP

Traders weigh a hawkish tilt in Fed minutes alongside geopolitical and legal risks that could sway rate expectations.

Overview

  • U.S. Treasury moves were subdued Friday, with the 10-year near 4.076%, the 30-year around 4.705%, and the 2-year at roughly 3.47%.
  • Economists expect the PCE inflation report to show 2.8% headline inflation year over year and 3% for core, with Q4 GDP near 2.5%.
  • January FOMC minutes confirmed rates were held steady but revealed divisions over whether to prioritize labor market conditions or inflation.
  • Deutsche Bank said steady macro reports, including industrial production and housing starts, and hawkish-leaning minutes support higher yields and reduce urgency for rate cuts.
  • Investors are tracking potential market swings tied to President Trump’s pending decision on Iran within about 10 days and a possible Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority.