Overview
- Final Emerson survey shows Ken Paxton leading the GOP field 40% to 36% over Sen. John Cornyn, with Wesley Hunt at 17%, a split that points to a May 26 runoff if no one tops 50%.
- Republican leaders and operatives warn a Paxton nomination could imperil a normally safe seat in November, as national groups pour tens of millions into boosting Cornyn and press the president for an endorsement he has so far withheld.
- Democrats face a tight contest, with Emerson finding James Talarico at 52% and Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 47%, following Crockett’s late endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris and Talarico’s heavy advertising push.
- Early voting totals through Thursday showed higher participation in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary statewide, with roughly 1.177 million Democratic ballots to more than 1.009 million Republican ballots.
- Ad trackers report a record $110–$122 million reserved or spent across both primaries, as cultural flashpoints such as the Epic City development fight and Paxton’s legal troubles shape late messaging.