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Tesla Robotaxi Progress, Rivian R2 Launch Set the 2026 EV Test

Investors have shifted to execution milestones that could set each stock’s 2026 path.

Overview

  • Tesla’s robotaxi pilot in Austin remains geofenced with safety drivers, with Elon Musk reiterating a year‑end autonomy goal and targeting roughly 60 vehicles, far below earlier projections and without a California license.
  • Tesla’s 2025 results showed strain as revenue fell in Q1 and Q2, automotive deliveries declined, adjusted EPS dropped 31%, and margins tightened as regulatory‑credit sales waned.
  • Rivian posted two consecutive quarters of positive gross margins earlier this year and reported a Q3 gross profit, supported by a $1 billion equity investment from Volkswagen and a related joint venture.
  • Rivian reduced unit costs by shifting to a zonal electrical architecture that cuts electronic control units and wiring, laying groundwork for its lower‑priced R2 SUV.
  • Year to date through this latest analysis, Rivian shares rose more than 23% versus about 10% for Tesla, underscoring how 2026 expectations hinge on these execution milestones.