Overview
- JPMorganChase Institute finds tariff payments by mid-sized firms rose to roughly three times early‑2025 levels after hikes began in April, affecting companies that employ about 48 million workers.
- The analysis reports firms are absorbing the added costs by raising prices, slowing hiring, or accepting lower profits.
- Payments to China by these firms fell about 20% from October 2024 levels, though it remains unclear whether this reflects rerouted trade or genuine supply‑chain shifts.
- Recent studies by the New York Fed and the Kiel Institute align with the bank’s findings, estimating roughly 90% to 96% of the tariff burden falls on U.S. buyers as the average tariff rate climbed to about 13% from 2.6%.
- Census data show the 2025 trade deficit widened by $25.5 billion to $1.24 trillion, as the White House disputes the New York Fed’s research and the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the president’s emergency tariff authority.