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Tails Holds Slim Edge as Super Bowl Coin Toss Stays a Top Prop Bet

Despite superstition about a curse, the numbers largely track randomness and sportsbooks continue to price heads and tails evenly.

Overview

  • Across 59 Super Bowls, the coin has landed tails 31 times and heads 28, with Super Bowl 59 adding to tails' narrow lead.
  • Teams that won the toss have gone 26–33 in the game, including an eight-game losing run from 2015 to 2022 followed by mixed results.
  • A 2023 study tracking 350,757 flips found a small 50.8% same-side bias, a real effect considered too tiny to offer a practical edge.
  • Sporting News simulations show short runs are plausible under chance, with one side winning 27–29 times in 56 flips about 31% of the time.
  • Books are dealing the coin toss near even with reduced juice (about -101 to -103), and it ranks among the most-bet markets, with BetMGM showing 51% of tickets on heads and 63% of money on heads.