Overview
- Snopes verified that six newly created Polymarket wallets placed bets hours before the Feb. 28 U.S./Israeli strikes and won roughly $1.2 million, with overall strike‑timing wagers exceeding $500 million.
- Bubblemaps publicly flagged the six wallets as suspicious based on on‑chain timing and funding patterns, yet the identities behind the accounts remain unknown and no proof of insider access has been made public.
- A New York Times analysis found an unusual surge of last‑minute wagers on Feb. 28, including more than 150 accounts placing at least $1,000 on a next‑day strike and at least 16 accounts netting over $100,000 each.
- A prominent Polymarket user known as “Magamyman” profited more than $553,000 on a market about Iran’s supreme leadership and about $431,000 on the Feb. 28 strike timing, according to multiple reports.
- U.S.‑regulated Kalshi invoked a “death carveout” for its Khamenei market, settling at the last pre‑death price and refunding fees, as Senator Chris Murphy vowed legislation to bar war betting and the CFTC’s ban on U.S. war‑related markets spotlighted gaps for offshore platforms like Polymarket.