Overview
- The coalition’s draft would award a 70-seat bonus in the 400-seat lower house and 35 seats in the 200-seat Senate, capped at 60% of total seats to safeguard the opposition, according to a coalition statement.
- The plan would scrap first-past-the-post constituencies and shift to a fully proportional system, with a run-off triggered only if coalitions win between 35% and 40% of the vote, sources said.
- A YouTrend simulation found that under the current mixed system neither bloc would secure a majority, while a purely proportional split would give the centre-right 57% of seats.
- YouTrend said the proposed bonus would convert a lead of only a few percentage points into a solid parliamentary majority for the centre-right alliance of Brothers of Italy, the League and Forza Italia.
- A Noto Sondaggi study estimated the centre-right is roughly four points ahead and could win up to 242 lower-house seats under the proposal, as opposition parties denounced the move and the bill heads to parliament.