Overview
- The report projects stablecoin market cap reaching $2 trillion by end-2028 from roughly $300–$320 billion today, despite a recent growth pause the analysts call cyclical.
- Issuers’ reserve allocations would add about $0.8–$1.0 trillion of new demand for short-dated Treasuries, with Tether and Circle already holding tens of billions in T-bills.
- Projected Federal Reserve reserve-management purchases and MBS reinvestments add a further $1.0–$1.2 trillion, taking total new T-bill demand toward $2.2 trillion through 2028.
- If the bills share of outstanding debt stays unchanged, net new supply is estimated near $1.3 trillion, implying an approximate $0.9 trillion gap versus demand.
- The Treasury said in its February QRA it is monitoring stronger front-end demand, and Standard Chartered suggests lifting the bill share by about 2.5 percentage points over three years and reallocating from longer maturities, potentially pausing 30-year auctions, which could ease pressure on long-term yields.