Overview
- S&P says a diversified private sector should keep current‑account surpluses in place as the public sector gradually reduces net borrowing.
- The agency projects the deficit at about 2.9% of GDP in 2026, narrowing to 2.7% by 2029, helped by extraordinary levies, tighter VAT enforcement and changes to short‑term rental taxation that offset some tax cuts.
- Italy’s debt remains very high, estimated near 136% of GDP in 2025 after Eurostat put it at 137.8% at end‑Q3 2025, with a gradual decline expected to start from 2028.
- Fresh Istat data show GDP grew 0.7% in 2025 with Q4 up 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, while unemployment fell to 5.6%, the lowest since 2004.
- Rome welcomed the decision, with Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti saying “the work pays,” as investors priced tighter spreads near 60 basis points and the positive outlook formally opens the door to a potential upgrade.