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Small Business Optimism Edges Up as Uncertainty Surges

Elevated uncertainty driven by tariffs, inflation, conflict in Gaza, labor shortages is tempering main street hiring and investment plans.

Overview

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points in July to 100.3, modestly above its 52-year average.
  • Uncertainty Index climbed eight points to 97, with owners citing tariffs, inflation, conflict in Gaza, labor shortages.
  • Labor quality emerged as the top issue for 21% of respondents, while poor sales reached their highest level since February 2021.
  • A net 28% of owners plan to raise prices, down four points from June but remaining well above historical norms.
  • The White House has defended its tariff strategy as a means to rebuild domestic prosperity.