Overview
- Saudi exports to India are averaging about 1.0–1.1 million bpd in February, the strongest since 2020, with a Feb. 20 peak near 1.3 million bpd that briefly topped Russia’s roughly 1.1 million bpd, according to Kpler data reported by the Times of India.
- Russia remains India’s largest supplier this month at about 1.2 million bpd, well below prior peaks above 2 million bpd, Kpler estimates show.
- Kpler projects Russia-to-India flows could ease to 800,000–1,000,000 bpd in March, with analysts expecting an additional April dip during planned maintenance at Nayara’s Vadinar refinery.
- China’s intake of Russian crude has risen to a record ~2.07–2.09 million bpd in February, based on Vortexa and Kpler figures reported by Reuters, offsetting India’s reduced spot buying.
- Urals crude is priced about $9–$11 per barrel below Brent for January–February deliveries to China, traders told Reuters, after U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and a U.S.–India trade understanding linking tariff relief to lower Russian purchases.