Overview
- As the war enters its fifth year, analysts say the wartime economy has been reshaped in ways that are difficult to reverse without another crisis.
- Growth slowed to about 1 percent in 2025, and forecasts indicate a weaker 2026.
- Export revenues are declining, and broader weakness means higher taxes cannot close widening budget gaps.
- Observers describe a “negative equilibrium” in which the system holds together while consuming its future productive capacity.
- Expectations of a rapid collapse are dismissed, with the outlook framed as prolonged erosion rather than a rebound.