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Rothschild Redburn Downgrades Amazon and Microsoft on Gen‑AI Profitability Concerns

The report contends Gen‑AI requires far more capital than early cloud services, eroding the margin thesis.

Overview

  • Rothschild & Co Redburn cut Amazon and Microsoft to Neutral and set 12‑month targets at $250 and $500, respectively.
  • Shares fell on the day of the note, with Amazon down about 4% and Microsoft off roughly 2.7% during a broader tech pullback.
  • The 61‑page analysis argues Gen‑AI is not comparable to cloud 1.0, citing 5–6 year depreciation vs. roughly 3 years previously, higher capital intensity, and weaker pricing power.
  • The firm highlighted a higher risk of overbuilding AI infrastructure and said the market still prices in cloud‑era returns that it views as unattainable.
  • For Amazon specifically, the downgrade pointed to AWS growth constraints despite recent reacceleration, even as many other analysts remain positive with a consensus target near $296.64.