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Robinhood Bets on Prediction‑Market Supercycle as Stock Falls After Q4 Miss

U.S. regulators are rewriting event‑contract rules during Robinhood’s push to make prediction markets a core business.

Overview

  • CEO Vlad Tenev called prediction markets the company’s fastest‑growing product and said a long runway could eventually support trillions in annual trading volume.
  • Robinhood reported more than 12 billion event‑contract trades in 2025 and over 4 billion so far in 2026, with volumes doubling in Q4 and about 3.4 billion contracts in January.
  • Quarterly revenue rose 27% to roughly $1.28–$1.3 billion but missed estimates as crypto transaction revenue fell 38%, and shares dropped about 9% Wednesday with analysts trimming price targets.
  • The company is building Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna intended to run a CFTC‑licensed exchange and clearinghouse, which management described as a planned launch later this year.
  • The CFTC withdrew its 2024 event‑contract proposal and a sports advisory on Feb. 4 and said it will pursue new rules, as public criticism surfaced over Robinhood’s plan to cross‑sell prediction‑market users into retirement and other products.