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Rivian Stock Slides After Post-Earnings Rally as Street Reassesses R2 Ramp and Cash Needs

A sharp pullback reflects doubts over the company’s ability to scale a lower-priced model while leaning on new software-driven margin gains.

Overview

  • Shares fell about 14% this week after initially jumping on Rivian’s 2026 delivery outlook, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
  • The company guided 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries for 2026, with the lower-priced R2 slated to begin customer deliveries in Q2 and expand production from a single shift.
  • Q4 revenue totaled $1.3 billion with a $120 million consolidated gross profit, as software and services generated $179 million in gross profit at mid‑30% margins.
  • Rivian projected a 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion and capex of roughly $2 billion, signaling continued cash burn during the R2 ramp.
  • Liquidity stood at about $6.1 billion at year-end, while analyst reactions were mixed, including Baird trimming its price target to $23 and TD Cowen raising to $17 with a Hold.