Overview
- Tracking shows Democrats outperforming Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote share by an average of 10.5 points in 20 state legislative specials this year and 13.9 points across 67 races last year.
- Recent results include Taylor Rehmet flipping a North Texas state Senate seat by 14 points in a Trump+17 district and Chasity Verret Martinez winning a South Louisiana House seat by 24 points in a Trump+13 district.
- In a north-central Oklahoma special election, a Republican won by 28 points, far below Trump’s 58-point margin there in 2024.
- GOP operatives warn of a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy MAGA base, while some party officials dismiss the contests as localized, low-turnout races.
- Republican strategists point to voter dissatisfaction with the immigration crackdown, the economy, and the administration’s handling of Epstein files, as Democrats test cost-of-living messages to win in pro-Trump areas.