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Rebound in Federal Spending Prompts Upgrades to Australia’s Q4 Growth Forecasts

Stronger public demand raises questions about capacity constraints flagged by the RBA.

Overview

  • Westpac lifted its December‑quarter GDP forecast to 1.1% after firmer readings on public demand and inventories.
  • Commonwealth Bank raised its estimate to 1.0%, a pace it says is well above potential growth.
  • Defence investment jumped 7.1% and federal public corporations rose 6.1%, driving a 0.9% rise in public investment despite state and local declines.
  • If ABS national accounts due Wednesday confirm the data, Q4 would be the fastest quarterly growth since December 2016 outside the pandemic.
  • RBA governor Michele Bullock says demand is outpacing supply and that sustained growth above about 2% would risk higher inflation, as Westpac’s assessment contrasts with Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claim government spending is not fuelling inflation.