Overview
- The governor told a business summit that every meeting is live and cautioned markets against assuming the next move will wait for the late‑April CPI, putting the March 17 decision in play.
- Markets assign about a 24% chance of a move this month, fully price the cash rate at 4.10% by May, and currently place it at 3.85%.
- Bullock said January inflation and tight labour indicators justify the February quarter‑point rise and suggest underlying demand is still running above the economy’s supply potential.
- Assistant governor Sarah Hunter released modelling showing a higher-rate path peaking near 5.5% in 2023 would have cut underlying inflation to about 2.5% by 2025 but lifted unemployment to roughly 5.3%, or around 190,000 more people out of work, with mortgage repayments about A$500 a month higher on a A$600,000 loan.
- The RBA is assessing the inflation risks from the Middle East conflict after oil prices jumped, with analysts estimating a sustained US$40-per-barrel rise could add around 40 cents a litre to petrol and about 0.8 percentage points to CPI, effectively acting as a tax on households.