Overview
- November CPI was flat month on month, taking annual headline inflation to 3.4% while the trimmed mean held at 3.2%, still above the 2–3% target.
- Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser called the data "helpful" but "largely as expected" and said recent figures contained "not a lot of news" for policymakers.
- Hauser reiterated that cuts are very unlikely in the near term and stressed the RBA targets inflation one to two years ahead rather than the latest monthly print.
- Analysts attribute much of the headline easing to Black Friday discounting, with housing costs such as rents and new dwellings remaining firm.
- Economists are split for February—Commonwealth Bank tips a 25bp hike to 3.85% while ANZ and Westpac expect a hold—and markets price roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a rise, with jobs data on January 22 also in focus.