Overview
- Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt are locked in a tight Republican contest, with an Emerson poll showing Paxton at 40%, Cornyn at 36% and Hunt trailing, making a May 26 runoff likely if no candidate tops 50%+1.
- In the Democratic race, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are neck and neck, with surveys diverging and support splitting along key demographic lines across Black, Hispanic and white voters.
- Trump has withheld an endorsement despite all three leading Republicans highlighting ties to him, and GOP leaders warn a Paxton nomination could endanger the seat and force heavy spending to defend it.
- Early voting in Harris County totaled 346,797 from Feb. 17–27, with Democrats casting 220,284 ballots to Republicans’ 126,513, signaling unusually strong participation on the left in the state’s largest county.
- Texas votes as the 2026 midterm season opens alongside North Carolina and Arkansas, with the U.S.–Iran escalation introducing a late foreign-policy backdrop to races centered on domestic issues.