Overview
- PECOTA pegs the Dodgers for a median 105 wins, underscoring a sizable gap from the rest of MLB and a path toward a third straight title run.
- Atlanta is projected for 92 wins with a 57% chance to take the NL East and roughly 90% playoff odds, with a three-team race involving the Mets and Phillies.
- The Mets are forecast at 88.4 wins with a 78.3% playoff chance, as Juan Soto draws elite projections at 156 DRC+ and 5.7 WARP.
- Detroit is projected to finish 84-78 with a 51.4% playoff chance, led by ace Tarik Skubal’s team-best projected DRA of 66.
- Milwaukee is slated near .500 at about 81-81 with 10.5% division odds and 31.2% playoff odds, a cautious view that follows past PECOTA underrates and reflects modeling challenges for depth-heavy rosters.