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Palantir Draws New Buy Ratings After Q4 Beat Despite Ongoing Valuation Concerns

Upgrades underscore surging AIP adoption despite persistent valuation skepticism.

Overview

  • Wedbush’s Daniel Ives reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $230 price target, calling fears about AI upending software business models overblown and seeing 77% upside from current levels.
  • Baird and HSBC upgraded Palantir to Buy with targets of $200 and $205 after the company posted accelerating profitability, with some 2027 free cash flow estimates rising from about $4 billion to nearly $6 billion.
  • Deutsche Bank raised its target to $200 but kept a Hold rating, citing rich multiples at roughly 70x EV to 2027 unlevered free cash flow excluding SBC and about 93x including SBC, while noting a $7.2 billion cash balance and a modest 2025 buyback plan.
  • Q4 revenue reached about $1.41 billion, up roughly 70% year over year, as total contract value bookings hit a record $4.3 billion and the company closed 61 deals above $10 million with U.S. commercial revenue jumping 137% to $507 million.
  • Management emphasized deeper spend from existing customers—customer count rose to 954, up about 34% year over year, while average revenue among the top 20 customers climbed to $94 million each—against a backdrop of recent share volatility including a 2026 year-to-date decline reported at 27%.