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Pakistan Pivots to Trade-First Ties With Gulf States as IMF Review Clears and Ratings Improve

Officials say stabilization lowered inflation to single digits and lifted reserves to about 2.5 months of imports, setting the stage for investment-led growth.

Overview

  • Finance leaders declared a shift away from aid toward trade and investment, prioritising deeper partnerships with GCC countries.
  • The IMF Executive Board approved Pakistan’s second EFF review this week and all three major rating agencies issued upgrades, bolstering policy credibility.
  • Key indicators show inflation down from a 38% peak to single digits, primary surpluses, a contained current account, a steadier exchange rate, and reserves near 2.5 months of import cover.
  • Reforms aim to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 11% from 10.3% by broadening the base and using AI to improve compliance, alongside energy measures on distribution governance, privatisation, tariff rationalisation, and circular-debt reduction.
  • Engagement with Gulf investors targets energy, oil and gas, minerals, AI, digital infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, with officials calling GCC FTA talks advanced and export support strengthened by scrapping a 0.25% turnover levy.