Overview
- Brent and WTI settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday before edging lower in early Thursday trading as the market reassessed escalation risks.
- U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said Iran has not met President Donald Trump’s red lines in nuclear talks and signaled Washington may consider “another option.”
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiators reached a general agreement on guiding principles, and the White House reported limited progress with more details expected in the coming weeks.
- Military signals sustaining a risk premium include a U.S. carrier presence, planned Iran–Russia naval drills, a rocket-launch NOTAM in southern Iran, and satellite imagery showing hardened facilities.
- Strategists see low odds of full-scale war and point to abundant non-OPEC supply, OPEC spare capacity, and softer demand forecasts as caps on a sustained rally, with traders awaiting official U.S. inventory data after an unexpected API draw.