Overview
- Iran’s foreign minister said the sides reached an understanding on the talks’ main guiding principles, cautioning that no deal is imminent.
- Brent and WTI hovered near two‑week lows around $67 and $62 in thin trade influenced by Lunar New Year and earlier U.S. market closures.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard held naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. deployed a second aircraft carrier, with Eurasia Group estimating a 65% chance of U.S. strikes by end‑April.
- OPEC+ is reported to be leaning toward resuming gradual output increases from April, while Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field is ramping back to full capacity after a January outage.
- Citi’s base case projects potential mid‑year diplomatic deals on Iran and Russia–Ukraine that could pull Brent down to about $60–$62, with traders watching the March 1 OPEC+ meeting and U.S. inventory data.