Overview
- Commerce Department figures put the 2025 goods-and-services deficit at $901.5 billion, down 0.2% from 2024 and still the third-widest on record.
- The goods shortfall rose to a record roughly $1.24 trillion as firms imported semiconductors and other AI-related equipment despite sweeping levies.
- Trade flows shifted sharply, with the China goods deficit falling to about $202 billion as gaps with Taiwan (~$147 billion), Vietnam (~$178 billion) and Mexico (~$197 billion) swelled; the services surplus grew to about $339 billion.
- A New York Fed analysis finds nearly 90% of tariff costs were borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, a pattern echoed by JPMorgan data showing tariff payments by mid-sized firms tripled in 2025.
- President Trump’s claim of a 78% deficit reduction conflicts with the official data, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the tariffs’ legal basis, with potential refund liabilities estimated up to roughly $168 billion if overturned.