Overview
- New York Fed researchers report that roughly 90% of last year’s import-tax burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers as the average tariff rose to 13%, with incidence estimates ranging from 94% early in 2025 to 86% in November.
- The Congressional Budget Office estimates foreign exporters absorbed about 5% of tariff costs, with U.S. businesses taking 30% through slimmer margins and about 70% passed on to consumers in higher prices.
- Treasury duty collections jumped by the hundreds of percent year over year, including $30.4 billion in January and $215.2 billion in fiscal 2025, highlighting the tariffs’ significant revenue impact.
- The House approved a largely symbolic measure to revoke emergency tariffs on Canada, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the administration’s authority, with Wharton estimating potential refunds to businesses of up to $168 billion if key levies are struck down.
- Independent estimates point to sizable household effects, with the Tax Foundation putting the average 2025 tariff burden near $1,000 and projecting $1,300 this year, while some officials and analysts dispute incidence findings on measurement grounds.