Overview
- Novo Nordisk guided to declines in 2026 revenue and earnings, and its shares—already down about 66% from 2024 highs—fell further on the update.
- Management linked part of the weaker outlook to a U.S. drug-pricing agreement that is expected to lower realized prices.
- Novo reached the market first with an oral GLP-1 and reports very strong early uptake, which could help expand usage and recapture share before Eli Lilly introduces its own pill.
- Eli Lilly remains the category leader with Mounjaro and Zepbound, delivered strong 2026 guidance, derived 56% of 2025 revenue from these GLP-1 drugs, and trades near 45 times earnings.
- Novo is developing an updated GLP-1 and is taking a tougher stance against compounded or generic rivals as supply improves, while some investors point to its roughly 13.5 P/E and 3.7% dividend yield as a value case.