Overview
- Sunspot region AR 4168 erupted with four M-class flares between Aug. 3–5, including a potent M4.4 event on Aug. 5 that launched the CME.
- Initial modeling indicates most of the CME material will pass above Earth’s orbit, but a glancing shock is expected to reach Earth late Aug. 7 or early Aug. 8.
- NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G2 – Moderate geomagnetic storm watch for Aug. 8 following forecasts of a co-rotating interaction region from a southern coronal hole.
- Expected impacts include G2-level geomagnetic storms that may trigger high-latitude power grid fluctuations, satellite orientation irregularities, minor R1–R2 radio blackouts.
- Forecasters continue to track AR 4168’s unstable magnetic fields for risks of further M-class or X-class eruptions.