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NOAA Forecasts Mild to Moderate Harmful Algal Bloom in Western Lake Erie

Seasonal updates in late July will track the bloom from its expected July start through September.

Overview

  • NOAA and its research partners assign this summer’s bloom a 3 on the HAB severity index, indicating mild to moderate conditions.
  • The bloom is expected to begin in early July, peak in August and remain confined to the lake’s western basin, avoiding Cleveland’s water intake.
  • Cyanobacteria-produced toxins, notably microcystin, threaten drinking water safety, recreational use and local economies with annual costs exceeding $70 million.
  • Agricultural nutrient runoff remains the primary driver of blooms, and Ohio’s H2Ohio program shows early reductions in runoff but faces uncertain future funding.
  • Climate-driven warmer temperatures and heavier precipitation have lengthened bloom seasons, prompting NOAA to schedule late July forecast updates.