Overview
- The National Hurricane Center on Friday lowered multiday formation odds to about 70% and said a tropical depression is still possible this weekend as the wave moves west across the central Atlantic.
- Invest 91L is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles by mid to late next week, and officials advise interests there to monitor updates.
- Models remain split on the longer‑range path, with faster strengthening favoring a northward turn and slower development supporting a more westward track toward the Caribbean.
- Dry air and wind shear are limiting organization for now, and several forecast runs suggest the system could remain weak or only reach tropical depression strength.
- Forecasters note very warm waters in the Caribbean and Gulf later this month could support rapid intensification if a stronger system reaches those regions, though any potential U.S. impacts are more than 10 days away and uncertain.