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NHC Designates Invest 98L as Tropical Wave Nears Windward Islands

Forecast models diverge on whether the disturbance organizes in the Caribbean or gets drawn north next week.

Overview

  • Invest 98L sits roughly 800–1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west at about 15–25 mph.
  • Heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas are expected in the Windward Islands Sunday into Monday regardless of development.
  • Formation odds remain low in the short term at 0–10% through 48 hours, rising to about 30% over the next seven days.
  • A separate non-tropical low over the North Atlantic has about a 10% chance to briefly gain subtropical traits over the Gulf Stream before moving into cooler waters.
  • Forecasters say the chance of U.S. mainland impacts is very low, though residents in Puerto Rico and nearby islands should monitor updates as scenarios vary.