Overview
- Andrew Davidson & Co. analyzed VantageScore 4.0 data for 245 million consumers and found that 35% had at least one bureau score 10 or more points off the tri‑merge median, 18% were off by 20 or more, and 7% by 40 or more.
- The paper estimates that a 20‑point shift between GSE pricing tiers could change the present value of combined mortgage and insurance costs by roughly $3,000 to $5,000 on a $350,000 loan at 90% LTV.
- Variability is concentrated among lower‑score borrowers, with those in the 600–639 range showing the largest gaps, and the study warns that roughly 30% of the 13 million consumers in the 620–639 band could fall below a 620 cutoff under a single‑score approach.
- Proposals using a 700 cutoff fail to eliminate discrepancies, with 18% of consumers in the 700–779 range still 20 or more points off the tri‑merge result, and the paper flags score shopping risks as about 9% of consumers could lift a representative score by 20 or more points versus the tri‑merge standard.
- Stakeholders remain divided, with CDIA, NCRA and CHLA defending tri‑merge and the MBA backing a single pull on cost grounds, as recent FOIA‑shared GSE documents reportedly favored FICO 10T and expressed skepticism about single‑report use.