Overview
- PPIC’s February survey places Steve Hilton at 15%, Katie Porter at 13%, Chad Bianco at 12%, Eric Swalwell at 11%, and Tom Steyer at 10%, with 10% undecided and a 3.1-point margin of error.
- Porter has slipped seven points since PPIC’s December poll, while Steyer has gained visibility after heavy spending that included a Super Bowl ad, according to expert analysis.
- Other recent polls echo the volatility, with Emerson showing Hilton at 17% and Bianco and Swalwell at 14%, and a Becerra-sponsored Tavern Research poll finding Bianco at 20% and Hilton at 12% with Democrats trailing.
- Democratic unease is growing as figures such as Assembly Member Corey Jackson urge lower-polling candidates to withdraw, and Rep. Dave Min voices concern about a potential lockout.
- Forecasters still rate the race safe or solid for Democrats and Kalshi gives Democrats an 86% chance of winning, though that is down from 93% a year ago, with the primary on June 2 and early voting less than three months away.