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New Channel 12 Poll Finds No Bloc Majority, Centrist Merger Would Lead With 38 Seats

The survey leaves both blocs short of 61, making Arab-party backing pivotal.

Overview

  • Channel 12/Mida projects Likud at 27 seats and Bennett’s party at 21, with the Joint List at 12 and overall tallies of 57 for the opposition and 51 for the coalition.
  • A full BennettLapidEisenkot merger is modeled at 38 seats, outpacing Likud at 27 while leaving coalition arithmetic dependent on Arab-party support.
  • The poll shows several parties below the electoral threshold, including Religious Zionism, Blue and White, and the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel.
  • Among opposition voters, 48% support forming a government with external backing from the Joint List and 37% oppose, reflecting mixed attitudes toward such an arrangement.
  • Netanyahu leads head-to-head suitability for prime minister over Bennett (42%–33%), Lapid (42%–24%), and Eisenkot (43%–28%), while a separate Channel 14 poll reports a stronger right-bloc at 64 seats and Likud at 34.