Morgan Stanley Initiates Bitcoin Miner Coverage, Backs Cipher and TeraWulf, Rates Marathon Underweight

Overview

• Analyst Stephen Byrd started Cipher Mining and TeraWulf at Overweight with price targets of $38 and $37, and initiated Marathon Digital at Underweight with an $8 target.
• Morgan Stanley argues that mining sites with long‑term leases fit infrastructure investor profiles and should be valued for stable cash flow, using data‑center REITs as reference points without assuming their full multiples.
• Cipher is framed for a potential “REIT endgame,” with leased facilities modeled as toll‑road‑like assets that generate predictable contracted revenue.
• For TeraWulf, the bank models bitcoin‑to‑data‑center conversions at roughly $8 per watt present value with a base‑case 50% success rate on planned 250 MW annual additions from 2028 to 2032, rising to 75% in an upside case.
• Marathon is seen as primarily driven by bitcoin mining economics given its hybrid strategy and limited hosting history, leading to lower expected upside from conversions, while shares of CIFR and WULF rose about 12% intraday as MARA was little changed.