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Mexico’s Economy Grew 0.7% in 2025 as Q4 Rebound Averted a Recession

INEGI’s flash reading is provisional, with the definitive GDP set for Feb. 23.

Overview

  • Output rose 0.8% quarter on quarter and 1.6% year on year in Q4 after a 0.3% contraction in Q3, clearing the technical recession risk.
  • Services underpinned activity through 2025 while industry lagged, with Q4 showing 0.9% gains in services and industry and a 2.7% drop in primary activities.
  • Exports climbed 7.6% to a record in 2025, producing a small trade surplus of roughly $770.9 million.
  • Officials hailed end‑year momentum and a resilient economy, as analysts flagged weak investment and policy uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs and domestic reforms.
  • Some reports cited a 0.5% annual figure from early series, but INEGI’s preliminary estimate points to 0.7% growth pending revisions.