Overview
- Roughly six million small and midsize businesses are expected to change hands by 2035, representing up to $5 trillion in enterprise value, according to McKinsey.
- Exits today skew toward shutdowns, with an estimated 92% ending in closure rather than sale or succession, heightening the risk that viable firms disappear.
- The greatest exposure sits in the 'missing middle' of firms valued under $2 million, a segment that is often overlooked by institutional buyers and crucial to rural economies.
- Expanded participation by underrepresented buyers could unlock large wealth gains, including up to $3 trillion in household wealth overall, with Black owners potentially rising from $87 billion to more than $369 billion under higher participation and parity scenarios pointing to roughly $700 billion for women.
- Key barriers include restrictive financing and advisory gaps—such as high‑equity SBA 7(a) requirements—while emerging responses feature online marketplaces, loan platforms, and employee‑ownership conversions that could help preserve as many as 12 million jobs and around $250 billion in local spending.