Overview
- Citrini Research outlined a scenario, not a forecast, in which rapid AI adoption pushes U.S. unemployment above 10% by 2028.
- The note describes a self-reinforcing loop where cost-cutting via AI leads to layoffs, weaker spending, margin pressure, and further AI investment.
- The scenario’s wide circulation coincided with roughly a 1% drop in the S&P 500 early in the week.
- Days earlier, IBM fell about 13% in its worst single-day loss since 2000 after Anthropic said its Claude Code tool could modernize COBOL.
- A J.P. Morgan study shows many individual stocks never recover, yet major indexes have historically delivered strong long-term gains, and a recent Motley Fool survey found investors modestly bullish for 2026 despite recession and labor concerns.