Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center keeps a roughly 60% chance of ENSO‑neutral during February–April after La Niña persisted in January.
- Subsurface Pacific waters have warmed and expanded eastward, a classic sign that La Niña is losing strength.
- Multi‑model guidance places El Niño odds near 50–60% for late 2026, while Australian reporting cites the Bureau of Meteorology’s higher internal estimate near 90%, with forecasters stressing the spring predictability barrier.
- An independent arXiv preprint favors neutral conditions for 2026 and, if El Niño develops, projects a relatively weak event around 0.84 ± 0.36°C.
- If El Niño forms, scientists say it would likely add about 0.1–0.2°C to global average temperatures and reshape regional weather patterns, including typical suppression of Atlantic hurricanes.