Overview
- Paul Krugman argues the administration’s promise to revive blue-collar jobs has fallen short, with manufacturing, construction, and mining employment down since Trump took office.
- Krugman cites official data showing the manufactured-goods trade deficit was larger in the first nine months of 2025 than the same period in 2024.
- Research from the Peterson Institute’s Robert Lawrence finds that even eliminating the manufactured-goods trade deficit would lift the share of U.S. manufacturing production jobs by less than one percentage point.
- Krugman says tariffs have raised prices for capital goods and industrial inputs, increasing costs for U.S. producers and undercutting competitiveness.
- Economist Justin Wolfers warns job creation has been close to zero since the April tariff rollout, while Bank of America research says AI-related investment has been propping up growth as some 2024 Trump voters express regret, according to Navigator Research.