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June Jobs Strength Keeps Fed on Hold, Slashes Cut Odds

Policymakers are holding rates to gauge the impact of tariffs on inflation following solid June job gains.

Overview

  • U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June and unemployment fell to 4.1%, exceeding expectations despite private payroll softness.
  • Private sector payrolls saw their smallest monthly increase since October, highlighting uneven labor-market conditions.
  • Traders cut the odds of a July rate cut to 5% and reduced September cut probabilities to 68%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
  • Federal Reserve officials signaled plans to leave interest rates unchanged this month as they await clearer signs from tariffs on inflation.
  • President Trump escalated public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding his resignation through Truth Social posts.