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JPMorgan Upgrades MercadoLibre to Overweight With $2,800 Target as Early Stock Pop Fades

The call points to rising Shopee take rates as evidence that price competition in Brazil is easing.

Overview

  • MercadoLibre shares jumped nearly 5% after the upgrade before giving back most of the gains by late morning.
  • JPMorgan’s Marcelo Santos set a $2,800 price target and said reduced pricing pressure could support stronger margins.
  • Santos forecasts MercadoLibre can sustain growth above 30% in Brazil in 4Q25, framing it as a path to hitting 2026 targets.
  • Recent results showed GMV up 35% on a currency‑neutral basis and net sales up 39% to $7.4 billion, while net income of $421 million missed the $481 million consensus.
  • Brazil’s free‑shipping push lifted customer growth and GMV but cut EBIT margins to about 9.8%, and Mercado Pago loans rose 83% to $11 billion with delinquency improving to 6.8% even as EBIT of $724 million missed projections.